Preventing Another al Qaeda-Affiliated Quasi-State: Countering JNIM’s Strategic Civilian Engagement

Al Qaeda affiliate JNIM is on track to gain firm control over swaths of territory in the central Sahel. Counterterrorism in West Africa has not been successful, partially because counterterrorism operations are not countering all the terrorist groups’ operations and strategies – especially not the non-kinetic operations and strategies. In addition to more “traditional” terrorist insurgency strategies, JNIM also pursues a non-traditional terrorist strategy that is non-kinetic. Countering JNIM’s non-kinetic engagement in its deployment will look more like civilian affairs and strengthening a positive presence of district and national government in geographic areas where JNIM is non-kinetically engaging or may engage next. JNIM’s intentionally low-lethal and non-lethal civilian engagement strategy ultimately looks like a squeeze on freedom of movement with roadblocks and extortion, intimidation, and attacks at road checkpoints. JNIM does kill and attack civilians, including beheading some accused of sharing information with security forces or ISGS or of not abiding by its version of Shariah law. It then puts those heads on public display to threaten the townsfolk to comply. However, JNIM has been seen to purposefully avoid killing civilians en masse – with the intent of not alienating the populations it intends to overtake, control, and profit from. Central to JNIM’s successful territorial gains and control is the group’s abduction and release strategy, identified by the author’s analysis of ACLED data and tracking. This is a rules-based strategy for engagement with civilians – comply or die – giving them clear direction and ample opportunity to follow the rules and live, resulting in fewer lethal interactions with JNIM. Abductees are most often key individuals – persons with influence, access, or persons connected to them. Greater coordination and communication are necessary to prevent and counter terrorism in the Sahel.